Why Does The United States Significantly Increase India'S Co
The US Department of Agriculture's December supply and demand report increased the global cotton output by 263000 tons (up to 25.558 million tons) in 2024/25, mainly because India's output increased by 218000 tons (up to 5.443 million tons, only 87000 tons less than the estimated output of the previous year), Brazil's output increased by 22000 tons, and the US's cotton output increased by 14000 tons. There may be room for further increase in China's output.
According to the analysis of insiders, the USDA significantly increased India's cotton production this year for the following reasons:
First, American Agricultural Counsellor, Indian Cotton Association and other institutions have raised the forecast of Indian cotton production in 2024/25. According to the latest report of the American Agricultural Counsellor, India's cotton planting area in 2024/25 will be 11.8 million hectares, with a unit yield of 461 kg/ha, the highest in nearly four years. The output is expected to be 25 million bales (218 kg per packet), while the latest survey results of India's CAI, CCI and other institutions also believe that the estimate of 30.2 million bales is low (170 kg per packet).
Second, as of 2024/25, the number of Indian new cotton on the market has exceeded that of the same period of last year, and the peak period of listing has just arrived. It is expected that the year-on-year growth of the number of new cotton on the market from December to February will gradually expand. According to statistics, as of December 11, 9443500 tons of Indian new cotton had been launched (646500 tons were launched in November), faster than the same period in 2023/24. Considering that in the four weeks before November 17, the weekly listing volume of Indian cotton was 110000 tons, 74000 tons, 184000 tons and 19.1 tons (AGM data), showing a rapid growth momentum, so December February will be the centralized listing period of Indian cotton.
Third, some institutions may underestimate the cotton planting area and yield in Gujarat, Maharashtra and other central cotton regions in 2024/25 to a certain extent. From late August to early September, frequent rainfall occurred in Gujarat, and some areas suffered from flood disasters, which led to the expected large impact on the growth and yield of S-6 in Gujarat, CAI, USDA and other institutions estimate their per unit area yield is low, while the actual cotton planting area in Madang is higher than the institutional forecast, timely rainfall and pest reduction are conducive to the growth of per unit area yield in northern cotton areas, and other factors also promote the expected increase of Indian cotton output in 2024/25.
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