Trump pursues the policy of "America first" and politicizes economic issues. A new round of trade war may be imminent, which will greatly affect the global supply chain system. According to the Economic Daily, "Recently, some clothing brand practitioners in the United States have been very anxious. They are worried about the trade protectionism policies of the new government in the future, especially the claims against China. When it is difficult to find alternative solutions, consumers will pay for them in the end, no matter how much the tariff is." As the current rate of decline of inflation in the United States slows down, The potential high tariff risk is expected to lead to a rebound in inflation. The Federal Reserve plans to slow the pace of interest rate cuts in the future after cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December.
Global cotton supply and demand situation in 2024/25
According to the forecast of the US Department of Agriculture in December, the global cotton output in 2024/25 will be 25.56 million tons, an increase of 960000 tons year on year and 260000 tons month on month; The global cotton consumption was 25.21 million tons, an increase of 320000 tons year on year and 120000 tons month on month; The output exceeded the demand by 350000 tons, reversing the situation of insufficient production and demand last year, and expanding by 140000 tons month on month; The global cotton inventory consumption ratio was 65.65%, up 0.78 percentage points from the previous year.
Cotton picking and finishing in the Northern Hemisphere. Rainfall in American cotton region caused a slight delay in picking and finishing progress. Cotton picking in the north of India ended, and began in the central and southern regions. According to the statistics of Indian Cotton Association, as of the middle of December, the cumulative market volume of Indian cotton had exceeded 1.42 million tons, and Indian cotton companies had purchased 527000 tons of new cotton at the lowest support price. The production prospect in the southern hemisphere is optimistic. The recent rainfall in cotton regions of Brazil and Australia is conducive to seeding and new cotton growth. The Australian Cotton Merchants Association predicted that the farm reservoir has sufficient water storage at present, and the cotton output is expected to reach 98-1090000 tons in 2025; Brazil National Commodity Supply Company estimated that Brazil's new cotton output was 3.7 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 1.06%.
Australia's cotton export came to an end, and American cotton and Brazilian cotton were in sufficient supply. The weekly export of American cotton is relatively stable. At the end of November, the weekly contracted volume briefly rose to 70000 tons and then fell back. At present, it has been stable at about 40000 tons for three consecutive weeks; Due to the downturn in market consumption, the cumulative sales progress is still relatively backward. As of December 12, the cumulative shipment volume of American cotton was 579200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 84400 tons, accounting for 18.7% of the predicted output. The export of Australian cotton came to an end. The shipment volume in October was 150000 tons, and the cumulative shipment volume was 900000 tons, accounting for 85.7% of the predicted output. From August to November, Brazil exported 870000 tons of cotton, accounting for 32.5% of the predicted output.
Replenishment demand drives textile consumption. The survey by the International Federation of Textile Manufacturers at the end of November showed that the global textile order volume has improved, mainly due to the growth of orders in South America. In the terminal clothing consumption market, the US clothing retail is still resilient, and the inventory of wholesalers continues to fluctuate and decline. According to the data of the US Department of Commerce, the inventory of clothing and clothing fabric wholesalers in the US in October was 2.82 billion US dollars, up 0.26% month on month, down 11.28% year on year; In November, the retail sales of American clothing and accessories reached 2.63 billion dollars, down 0.24% month on month and up 2.24% year on year.
In December, affected by multiple factors such as the decline in import costs caused by the appreciation of the US dollar and the acceleration of stock replenishment by American buyers before Trump took office, it is expected that the Southeast Asian textile and clothing export market may continue to grow.
Post time: 2025-01-03 17:25