According to the articles of foreign analysis institutions, from the situation of the last four years, Australia's cotton output has remained at a historical high, and it is very unusual to be able to sustain high yield for a long time.
In recent years, the cotton area in the north and southernmost parts of Australia has expanded dramatically. The Australian authority estimates that in 2024/25, the total output of these newly emerging cotton producing areas (non-traditional cotton areas) will reach 1.3 million bales, an overall increase of 500000 bales in the last 10 years, and an overall increase of 1 million bales in the last 20 years.
In addition to the increase in area, another important situation is that the average output of the Darling Basin and Central Valley has reached more than 4 million bags in the last four years. During the drought period of the previous few years, the average output of the region just exceeded 1.25 million bales, of which the output in 2019/20 was almost zero.
Finally, the continuous high yield of Australian cotton is also attributed to the continuous increase of unit yield in recent years, especially the yield of dryland fields. Although different cotton planting years will lead to changes in the yield of dryland fields, there is no denying the important impact of the continuous improvement of unit yield and the improvement of agricultural production management and water use efficiency. With the continuous increase of unit yield of dryland fields, local cotton production is not only an "opportunity crop" when the price is good and the soil moisture is high.
In general, drought in the Darling Basin will inevitably lead to a decline in Australian cotton production from time to time. However, with the emergence of new production areas with suitable climate and new drainage facilities in northern Australia, and the gradual completion of local ginning plants, Australia will create an additional basic output of about 1.5 million bags (in the worst case). Under the condition of abundant irrigation water and good seasonal conditions in dry land, Australia's cotton yield may reach 6.5 million to 7 million bales at most, much higher than the average level of 5 million bales in recent years.
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Post time: 2025-01-07 09:05