The spot price of cotton in China remained stable after the festival, and the downstream is still recovering gradually. The purchase and sales of raw materials are light, and the overall variation of the basis quotation is not significant.
After the Zheng Mian Futures Festival, the main range of Zheng Mian fluctuated. The range of tariffs imposed by the United States on China is basically in line with market expectations, and the negative impact on Zheng Mian is less than that on American cotton. At the same time, the processing of domestic new cotton has basically ended, the commercial inventory is high, and the increase of hedging pressure has also limited the upward space of cotton prices. At present, the domestic downstream is still recovering after the festival, and the sustainability and trend of peripheral macro policies are questionable. In the absence of clear market conditions, Cotton prices remained volatile consolidation.
The spot price of international cotton was 61.77 cents/pound FOB in the seven major spot markets in the United States, down 2.77% month on month, or 27.24% year on year; Cotbook A fold 1% tariff was 13704 yuan/ton, down 0.81% month on month and 18.34% year on year; India S-6 new cotton spot quotation was 77.45 cents/pound, down month on month 2.82%, down 10.05% year on year.
ICE cotton recent cotton in a row after falling gradually stabilized shock. During the Spring Festival, affected by factors such as the new US tariff policy continued to push up the US dollar and the decline of US cotton export contract volume, the cotton in ICE period fell by more than 4% for five consecutive years The market panic eased slightly and the cotton price gradually stabilized as the United States suspended the small package tax exemption policy in the late years. On February 7, the contract settlement price of ICE cotton in March was 65.63 Cents/pound, down 2.91% month on month and 25.82% year on year.
The price difference between current and future of domestic cotton is that the price of China's cotton price index CC3128B is 14790 yuan/ton, up 0.07% month on month and down 13.16% year on year. CC 3128B The main contract price difference with Zheng Mian Futures was 1195 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton month on month and 183 yuan/ton year on year.
The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices, the difference between China's cotton spot price index CC 3128B and CotbookA's tariff price of 1% is 1086 yuan/ton, an increase of 122 yuan/ton month on month, an increase year on year 836 yuan/ton.
The progress of new cotton processing and public inspection, the growth rate of new cotton processing continues to slow down, and the processing in northern Xinjiang is basically completed. It is expected that the processing in the whole Xinjiang will be completed by the end of March at the latest. According to the statistics of national cotton trading market, as of January 22 Daily, the lint processing in Xinjiang totaled 6.3952 million tons, up 18.9% year on year. Among them, the processing of lint in the autonomous region was 4.5487 million tons, up 26.28% year on year; Bingtuan lint processing 184.66 10000 tons, up 3.95% year on year.
Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the growth rate of new cotton inspection slowed down significantly. According to the statistics of China Fiber Quality Monitoring Center, as of February 9, there were 1093 Cotton processing enterprises processed cotton according to the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan and carried out notarial inspection. The inspection weight was 6.3915 million tons, an increase of 14.43% year on year, including 1004 in Xinjiang, with the inspection weight 6.2898 million tons, up 15.42% year on year.
According to the statistics of China Cotton Information Network, as the downstream entered the holiday mode before the festival, the spot purchase and sales of cotton basically stagnated. Textile enterprises just needed to stock up moderately, and the transportation volume of cotton to China also decreased. The commercial inventory increased slightly month on month At the end of the month, the national cotton commercial inventory was 5.7467 million tons, an increase of 61600 tons or 1.08% over the previous month, and 179700 tons or 3.23% over the same period last year.
According to the sample survey of China Cotton Information Network, 1 In May, under the condition that the finished products were significantly destocked and the financial pressure was eased, some textile enterprises properly replenished the inventory, and the overall raw material inventory increased slightly. At the end of January, textile enterprises' industrial inventory of cotton in warehouse was 980300 tons, an increase of 1.08 over the previous month The disposable cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 1327600 tons, an increase of 15300 tons over the previous month.
Downstream startup and inventory, according to TTEB According to statistics, after the Spring Festival holiday, textile enterprises gradually resumed production, but the transaction has not yet resumed. Inquiry and actual transaction are relatively rare, mainly sending orders before the year. In terms of price, most prices were stable, some quotations were raised, and the market was mainly wait-and-see. two On July 7, the cotton yarn inventory index was 19.9 days, 0.3 days higher than that before the festival, and the cotton yarn load index was 45.3%, 14.6% higher than that before the festival.
The monthly report of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) in February shows that the global cotton output in 24/25 is expected to be 25.55 million tons, an increase of 19% over the forecast value last month 10000 tons, up 5.9% year on year; The consumption was 25.42 million tons, unchanged from the predicted value last month, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; The export volume was 9.61 million tons, 60000 tons less than the predicted value last month, 2.63% less than the same period last year; 24/25 The global cotton inventory at the end of the year was 18.69 million tons, an increase of 170000 tons over the forecast value of the previous month, or 0.7% year-on-year.
According to USDA statistics, as of the week of January 30, the contracted volume of American cotton exports had decreased, and the shipment volume had increased significantly. The net export contracted volume of American upland cotton in 24/25 was 4.28 10000 tons, 33% less than the previous week, and 30% less than the average value of the previous four weeks. The net increase in contracted volume comes from Turkey, Pakistan, Vietnam, China (3447 tons) and Bangladesh. The 24/25 annual shipment volume of upland cotton in the United States is 50100 tons, an increase of 44% over the previous week and 12% over the average value of the previous four weeks, are mainly shipped to Vietnam, Pakistan, China (6010 tons), Turkey and Mexico.
The contracted net export volume of American Pima cotton in 24/25 was 1338 tons, 18% lower than the previous week, and 4% higher than the average value of the previous four weeks. The net increase in contracted volume comes from Peru, India, Vietnam, Turkey and Indonesia. U.S.A The export shipment volume of Pima cotton in 24/25 was 3515 tons, an increase of 97% over the previous week, and a significant increase over the average value of the previous four weeks, hitting a new high this year, mainly to India, Peru, Vietnam, and China (295 Tons) and Turkey.
Indian Cotton Association increased the forecast data of Indian cotton production and consumption in 24/25. According to the latest supply and demand balance table in December issued by Indian Cotton Association, the forecast value of Indian cotton output in 24/25 is adjusted to 5.17 million tons (30000 tons more than the predicted value last month), 5.36 million tons (30000 tons more than the predicted value last month), and others remain unchanged. As of December 31, 2024, 24/25 In the year, 2.28 million tons of Indian cotton were listed, nearly half of which were listed.
According to the Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB), as of February 2, 56.1% of Brazilian cotton planting had been completed in 24/25, an increase from last week 9.8%, down 32.6% year on year. Due to frequent rainfall in Mato Grosso, the main cotton producing area in Brazil, the cotton planting progress is far behind the same period last year, and some institutions have reduced the rate of 24/25 The annual cotton output is estimated to be 3.79 million tons, lower than the 3.83 million tons predicted in December.
In the near future, the trend of domestic cotton is slightly better than that of foreign cotton, and the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has widened. At home, the processing of new cotton has basically ended, and the commercial inventory is at a high level in the past five years. The continuous loose supply side has increased the panel hedging pressure, while the downstream is currently dominated by orders before the production festival, and the willingness to replenish raw materials is weak, so the market is more cautious; Internationally, ICAC2 Monthly supply and demand report increased slightly The 24/25 global cotton production forecast continued the loose pattern of global cotton supply and demand, while the significant increase in macro uncertainty also put pressure on cotton prices. In the later stage, we will focus on the peripheral macro policy trends, the recovery of market demand, and the upcoming USDA global cotton supply and demand forecast report and NCC 2025 US intended cotton planting area report.
Post time: 2025-02-14 09:23