In 2024, the demand for domestic textiles and clothing will be slightly worse. According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative sales of textiles, clothing and knitwear from January to December will be 1409.5 billion yuan, up 0.3% year on year. However, this growth rate is only higher than that in 2020 and 2022. Due to the negative year-on-year growth rate of the epidemic in these two years, the domestic demand in 2024 is not ideal.
It is expected that although the domestic consumption in 2025 may increase slightly, the growth rate should not be very large, mainly because the clothing price stratification range is large and diversified, and low-cost clothing dominates the market. If the promotion fee is reduced, the effect is not expected to be obvious.
In 2024, China's textile and clothing exports will basically maintain. The latest data from the General Administration of Customs shows that in 2024, China's export of textiles and clothing will reach 301.6 billion US dollars, up 1.1% year on year; Among them, textile exports reached US $142.11 billion, up 4.5% year on year, and clothing exports reached US $159.52 billion, down 1.7% year on year. The export of clothing began to improve in October, especially in November and December, when the data was very bright. It was mainly considered that Trump was scrambling for orders in the market before taking office.
In 2025, the export is expected to be better, but there is greater uncertainty in the market. The GDP growth of the EU, Japan and most of the United States, the main consumer markets of textiles and clothing, in 2025 is higher than that in 2024, and the GDP growth of the United States is basically maintained.
Better economic expectations often lead to better cotton consumption expectations. In addition, at present, the inventory of clothing and fabric wholesalers in the United States is on the low side of the trend, and there is a great potential for replenishment in the later period.
Therefore, from the perspective of major consumer markets, cotton consumption is expected to be better in 2025. However, due to the uncertainty of tariff policy after Trump came to power, China's cotton consumption in 2025 is also uncertain.
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