Global Economic Environment And Cotton Industry Trend Analys

As one of the most important natural fibers in the world, cotton production has a crucial impact on the textile industry. In recent years, with the progress of science and technology and policy support, the cotton industry is undergoing profound changes.

Trend analysis of cotton industry in 2025

　 1. Global cotton production

According to the data released by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), the global cotton output in 2024/25 is expected to be 25.688 million tons, an increase of 140000 tons month on month, or 6.52% year on year. This growth is mainly due to the increase in production in major cotton producing countries such as China, the United States and Brazil. Among them, China's cotton production growth is particularly significant.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the cotton planting area in China will be 42.574 million mu in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; The output was 6.164 million tons, up 9.72% year on year. As the largest cotton producing country in the world, China's cotton production has an important impact on the global cotton market. Especially in Xinjiang cotton region, with its unique natural conditions, the cotton output has continued to grow in recent years. In 2024, the cotton planting area and output in Xinjiang will be 36.7185 million mu and 5.686 million tons respectively, up 3.32% and 11.22% year on year respectively compared with 2023.

　 2. Global cotton consumption

In response to the increase in output, global cotton consumption also showed a trend of steady growth. According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the global cotton consumption in 2024/25 is expected to be 25.527 million tons, an increase of 103200 tons month on month, or 2.27% year on year. Despite the slowdown of global economic growth, the demand for cotton, an important raw material for textile industry, is still growing steadily.

According to the analysis of the 2025-2030 China Cotton Industry Development Analysis and Investment Strategy Forecast Report by the China Research Puhua Industry Research Institute, as one of the world's largest cotton consumers, China's market size should not be underestimated. In 2024/25, China's cotton consumption is expected to decline slightly year on year, but still remain at a high of 8.274 million tons. This is mainly due to the rapid development of China's textile industry and the increased demand of consumers for high-quality textiles. However, it is worth noting that in recent years, China's cotton demand growth tends to be flat or even decline. This downward trend reflects that the domestic textile industry and downstream consumer market are changing. On the one hand, the domestic textile industry is facing challenges such as rising labor costs and increasing environmental pressure; On the other hand, with the improvement of consumers' demand for clothing quality and diversification, the growth of demand for pure cotton products has slowed down, and chemical fiber, new materials and other alternatives are gradually favored by the market.

　 3. Cotton inventory and price

Global cotton stocks are also increasing, which further aggravates the supply pressure on the market. According to ICAC data, the global cotton ending inventory in 2024/25 is estimated to be 18.775 million tons, up 87100 tons month on month, down 0.86% year on year. Although the inventory has declined, it is still at a high level as a whole. In the context of loose supply and demand, cotton prices are under pressure.

In the Chinese market, cotton prices are also affected by many factors. On the one hand, the adjustment of domestic policies has had an important impact on cotton prices. For example, the national policy of increasing the purchase price of cotton will help stimulate farmers' enthusiasm for planting cotton; On the other hand, fluctuations in international market prices and changes in trade policies also have an impact on domestic cotton prices.